“Antes de comenzar a invertir a largo plazo, ¿qué debo comprar?” Esta es una pregunta que he recibido a menudo de muchos estudiantes.
De hecho, el aspecto más desafiante de las inversiones a largo plazo no es cómo comenzar correctamente, sino cómo completar adecuadamente el proceso de inversión a largo plazo. Por lo tanto, la prioridad no es lo que comprar, sino entender el proceso de inversión a largo plazo, entenderse a sí mismo y hacer una asignación correcta de activos, para completar su trayectoria de inversión a largo plazo.
Este artículo comparte tres consideraciones clave para la inversión a largo plazo, incluyendo la comprensión del mercado, la comprensión de sí mismo y la comprensión de las herramientas y métodos, para evaluar el enfoque de inversión a largo plazo que mejor se adapte a usted.
La primera consideración clave: entender el mercado
Comprender los principales tipos de activos básicos en el mercado financiero y elegir activos con tendencias al alza a largo plazo.
Las categorías de activos importantes en el mercado financiero incluyen acciones, bonos, oro, REIT, materias primas, etc.
Sin embargo, no todos los activos son adecuados para inversiones a largo plazo. Debe darse prioridad a las actividades que tengan una tendencia ascendente a largo plazo.
Para la mayoría de los inversores, los activos más básicos e importantes son las acciones y los bonos.
Acciones: Las acciones representan la propiedad de una empresa. Las empresas operan para proporcionar productos y servicios y generar beneficios, y los inversores de capital participan en estas ganancias.
Bonos: Los bonos son certificados de deuda. Al prestar dinero a gobiernos o empresas a través de bonos, los inversores pueden recibir intereses y recuperar capital a vencimiento.
Dado que las acciones pueden generar beneficios continuamente y los bonos emiten intereses constantemente, las acciones y los bonos en su conjunto tienden a mostrar una tendencia ascendente a largo plazo durante períodos más largos.
Por el contrario, los activos como las materias primas a menudo tienen una mayor volatilidad que el mercado de valores. No generan beneficios ni intereses y carecen de características de crecimiento ascendente, lo que los hace menos adecuados para inversiones a largo plazo y más a menudo utilizados para el comercio corto o swing.
2. Los diferentes activos tienen diferentes rendimientos y características de riesgo.
Aunque las empresas crean ganancias y los bonos pagan intereses, esto no significa que las acciones y los bonos suban y nunca caen. La razón es que en cualquier momento, el precio que las personas están dispuestas a pagar por un activo está influenciado por su juicio sobre el futuro y el clima actual del mercado, causando fluctuaciones. El grado de fluctuación varía entre los diferentes activos. Los bonos están más influenciados por el entorno actual de las tasas de interés, por lo que no solo son los rendimientos históricos los que son importantes, sino más bien los rendimientos de los últimos años los que son más relevantes. A diferencia del mercado de valores, el mercado de bonos, con la excepción de los bonos a largo plazo y los bonos de alto rendimiento con mayor volatilidad, sufre cambios menos drásticos a corto plazo con los bonos gubernamentales a mediano y corto plazo y los valores de grado de inversión. Aunque los rendimientos generales son más bajos que los del mercado de valores, la estabilidad es relativamente mayor.
Statistically, even in a 40-year long-term investment in large-cap US securities, there can be drops of as low as -50%. The drawdown scale in the bond market, on average, is lower than that of the stock market.
The need to resist price volatility is a crucial feature of the financial market and something that long-term investors need to understand.
Before undertaking long-term investments, investors should understand the risk characteristics of the assets they invest in, assess the risks they may encounter during their investment, and know which instruments are suitable for them.
The second key consideration: understanding yourself
After understanding the various market activities and their risk-return profiles, the choice of markets in which to invest should be based on their own conditions and risk tolerance.
1. Understand your investment goals
Goals such as accumulating pension funds, saving for future tuition fees for children, or a down payment for a home, may require the sale and withdrawal of funds at certain future points, or may be under pressure not to incur significant losses.
The most common mistake in setting investment targets is looking for high returns, with the belief that the higher the return, the better.
In investment, the potential for high returns is accompanied by high risks, which could also result in low returns or losses. Understanding your goals and how much risk you can tolerate is critical to determining the right allocation of long-term investment assets for you.
2. How long can you invest?
An investment principle is to use only the excess money, as the investment plan must be interrupted when the funds are needed for other purposes.
The shorter the investment period, the lower the risk of the investment. The longer the investment period, the more you can choose higher risk investments.
Generally, if the investment horizon is less than 5 years, it is not advisable to choose high-risk investments. While bearing a lower risk may result in lower returns, the potential loss will also be smaller if the result is not as expected.
Conversely, if the investment period is longer, for example more than 15 years, and you are willing to take a higher risk, you can choose higher risk investments. Over a longer period, there is a greater likelihood of achieving returns close to historical averages.
3. How much risk volatility can you tolerate?
Everyone’s ability to tolerate risk varies due to personal cash flow, age and personality.
In investment, the highest-risk asset classes include stocks, which historically, in some of the worst periods, have declined to -50%. For example, an investment of $1 million could fall to $500,000, or from $20 million to $10 million. Although it may resurrect later, the reality is that many people cannot endure such a process.
Once price volatility exceeds your tolerance, it often means the end of your investment plan, making any long-term investment strategy meaningless.
Therefore, it is important to understand risk tolerance and control risk within your capacity when investing.
4. How much time do I have to do investment research?
Investors with ample time for research can use completely different methods than timeless ones.
Those who have the time and research capacity could adopt active investment strategies; in case of lack of time for research, it could be considered a passive or indexed investment, or entrust the transaction to a fund manager.
The third key consideration: understanding investment tools and methods
1. Deciding on the Proportions of Asset Allocation
Asset allocation is a method of controlling investment risk by distributing funds proportionally across assets.
The objective of asset allocation is to reduce overall asset risk and increase investment certainty through low or sometimes negative correlation between different assets. The allocation method varies depending on the investment period and risk tolerance.
For example, stocks are more volatile, while bonds are less volatile. Therefore, you can use a combination of these two types of assets, such as a typical share percentage of 60% and bonds of 40%. Compared to investing exclusively on the stock exchange, this may result in slightly lower long-term returns, but volatility will be very low and the potential drawdown in a single year may also be lower.
2. Decide on investment goals: beginners should use widely diversified investment tools
There are many different investment instruments in the financial field, such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, etc.
Beginners are advised to start with diversified fund instruments, including mutual funds and indexed funds. Even with a small amount of capital, it is possible to achieve broad diversification, avoiding serious losses due to misjudgment in a single security or bond.
3. Choosing the investment methods
There are many ways to decide the timing of purchases for long-term investments, but the most challenging aspect for beginners is disciplined adherence to the plan.
For beginners, the simplest method is regular fixed amount investment.
As long as the chosen assets have a long-term upward trend, regular fixed capital investments can mediate the purchase price over time. While not always buying at the lowest price, it also avoids buying at the most, helping investors invest with discipline.
Start investing in the long term with simple execution and diversification of risk!
The most challenging part of long-term investment is not how to select goals, but how to execute a long-term investment plan with discipline.
Before undertaking a long-term investment, it is essential to fully understand the market, particularly stocks and bonds, and their long-term characteristics and risks, so that you can anticipate fluctuations that may occur during the investment process.
It is also essential to have a good understanding of yourself before investing in the long term, including your investment horizon and risk tolerance, to avoid making decisions that exceed your risk capacity in pursuing returns.
Once you understand the market and yourself, choose the appropriate asset allocation tools and decide the investment proportion for assets such as stocks and bonds. Beginners are advised to start with tools that offer wide diversification and regular fixed amount investments. Many fund instruments currently provide the effects of diversified investments and regular fixed-amount investments.
After gaining some investment experience, if you have your own opinions, you can allocate a portion of your funds to supplement and strengthen certain types of goals.
